by Zayd Hamid

Over the weekend, the Republican Party of Virginia held campaign office opening events in Manassas City and Sterling. According to an internal campaign memo obtained by CBS News, these openings constitute two out of the eleven planned “Trump Force 47” offices in Virginia. 

Manassas is located in Virginia’s 10th congressional district, which recently had primary elections resulting in Republicans nominating Mike Clancy and Democrats nominating Suhas Subramanyam as party nominees to fill the congressional seat currently held by Democrat Jennifer Wexton.

Mike Clancy, a lawyer and political commentator, won the Republican primary with 17,434 votes – constituting 64.24% of the total votes cast in that election according to the Virginia Department of Elections. Clancy also received the most votes in Manassas: 607 votes, 60.7% of the votes cast within those seven precincts. His opponents were Aliscia Andrews, Alex Isaac, and Manga Anantamula. 

Suhas Subramanyam, the state senator representing Virginia’s 32nd district, won the Democratic primary with 13,504 votes – constituting 30.43% of the total votes cast in that election according to the Virginia Department of Elections. Subramanyam received the second-most votes in Manassas: 386 votes, 19.6% of the locality’s votes. His opponents were Dan Helmer, Atif Qarni, Eileen Filler-Corn, Jennifer Boysko, David Reid, Michelle Maldonado, Adrian Pokharel, Krystle Kaul, Travis Nembhard, Marion Devoe, and Mark Leighton. 

According to an analysis from The Hill, Subramanyam is favored to defeat Clancy because of the district’s recent political history. Republicans have not regained Virginia’s 10th district seat from Democrats since Jennifer Wexton won the election in 2018 against Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock with 56.2% of the vote. Wexton held that seat against challengers Aliscia Andrews in 2020 and Hung Cao in 2022. Cao is the current Republican challenger to Senator Tim Kaine. 

We spoke with staff from several 10th district Democratic and Republican primary campaigns about what the new Republican office in Manassas could mean for November’s elections. Here’s what they had to say:  

Andrews’ former regional field director, Sammy Yang, believes that recent Democratic victories in the district are because of demographic changes and “people moving to Virginia from states such as Maryland, New York, and other already Democratic-leaning states in the East Coast.” The demographic data for Manassas, as reported to the 2020 U.S. Census, may evidence Yang’s claims. Manassas, no longer a White-majority city, is likely to sustain a rise in Hispanic and Black residents into the foreseeable future. 

For Republicans to be competitive in this changing landscape, Yang believes that the party needs to diversify its get-out-the-vote strategy. “Republicans not only have to organize but reach out to other demographics. You have to talk to voters from all walks of life and hear them out.” Establishing a flagship office in Manassas may signify Republicans heeding Yang’s advice on the necessity of broader outreach. 

“Despite Republicans not having many offices in Northern Virginia, Virginia is still in play,” Yang predicts. “It’s going to be an interesting year in Virginia politics.” 

Democratic campaign staff do not believe that Republicans can win statewide, feeling that the new Republican office in Manassas will not have a major impact. “The GOP opening their first office in Manassas is a move fueled by intentions to reach a broader demographics but mixed with old school tactics as seen from their campaign media,” one former campaign staffer for a Democratic campaign commented. 

“The office, although a tactical step, will provide little cushion for the race supporting Mike Clancy against incumbent State Senator Suhas Subramanyam who’s developed inroads into Prince William during his successful primary campaign,” the staffer continued. “Inside the wider senate race, Hung Cao has taken a route that will cost him the suburbs regardless of this office being open in Manassas. His constant attack lines will further cost him suburban voters in these types of towns. Field offices cannot negate this down-ballot effect.” 

Establishing an office in Manassas signified, to this Democratic staffer, that the Republican Party was “feeling bullish coming into the campaign season” when President Joe Biden was their opponent at the top of the ticket. But, because of the influx of new and far-reaching support Vice President Harris has received since taking over that spot, these vanguard offices “stand as a relic of what the Trump campaign thought it could do just weeks ago.”

Jackson McAfee, a former fellow with Michelle Maldonado’s campaign, feels that Republican campaign offices are being established too late to effectively challenge the near-dozen offices that Democrats have operated for months. “The pillars of a campaign are built up to a year before the election, not three months prior,” he said. “Give us one GOP office, and we’ll establish twice as many in return.” 

McAfee is confident in the Democratic coordinated campaign’s statewide success due to its significant fundraising momentum and operable political infrastructure. “Whether it’s for the Virginia Senate, Congress, or the presidency, I am confident that opening a new office three months before the election will not be enough for Republicans to undermine these strong foundations.”

Having a good campaign team and the funds to support their operations is often the deciding set of factors in competitive elections. Virginia, a state with a Republican governor and two Democratic senators, will continue to be a key part of national political strategies for both major parties. Campaign staff like those quoted above can be difference-makers in races up and down the ballot statewide as November elections get closer. 

(Zayd Hamid is the 2023 Student Advocate of the Year, member of the National Institute of Lobbying and Ethics, member of the National Society for Leadership and Success, and a current Master of Public Policy student at George Mason University. Find out more about his resume services by visiting his LinkedIn page.)