Virginia’s gubernatorial race is set to be one of the most contentious elections the Commonwealth has seen in a long time. The Democratic nominee in the race is Former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a polarizing figure who was heavily criticized by progressive members of his own party during the Democratic Primary. McAuliffe is facing off against Republican businessman Glenn Youngkin, and most of the former governor’s criticisms of his opponent have fallen flat.

Youngkin has ducked, dodged, weaved, and pivoted through every critique and criticism his opposition has hurled at him, but that all changed last Saturday when Former President Barack Obama joined McAuliffe on the campaign trail.

Having Obama’s endorsement is standard for any Democratic nominee for governor, but having him come to Virginia to campaign could change some minds. And in this case it might have.

For the past few months, polls for the gubernatorial race have been fluctuating, and Democrats have been struggling to close that gap. But President Obama offered a crucial critique of Glenn Youngkin–a critique that holds more water than most.

“Either he actually believes in the same conspiracy theories that resulted in a mob, or he doesn’t believe it but he is willing to go along with it, to say or do anything to get elected. And maybe that’s worse,” said the former president.

President Obama’s comments have pulled back the curtains and offered a view into what has made Youngkin’s campaign successful so far. One of the many failed attacks that Democrats have launched at Youngkin during the election is that he has refused to take solid stances. Youngkin has walked a thin line between moderate policies and far-right talking points, and until recently, his website did not have a page stating his stance on issues.

President Obama’s criticism works because it points out why Youngkin has refused to take any stances. If he were to condemn far-right extremists, he would lose those voters, but if he were to fully embrace extremism, he would lose support from moderate Republicans and swing voters. In order for a Republican to win in Virginia, they would have to win over extremists, moderate Republicans, and swing voters, and Youngkin has won over voters in all three categories by hiding who he actually is.

Youngkin’s strategy has worked so far. As someone with no political experience, he has successfully managed to contend with someone who has already held the office that the two are vying for. It is undeniable that his strategy of avoidance has paid off, but can it continue to work after President Obama unpacked it to the people of Virginia? 

As PW Perspective wrote in an editorial in mid-September, “Extremists can believe that he, too, is an extremist who wants to join them in invalidating the presidential election and storming the United States Capitol. Moderates can believe that he is a sensible center-right conservative whose heart is in the right place and who seeks only to do right by God.”

Youngkin’s messaging has been stronger than McAuliffe’s at every turn. After the second gubernatorial debate, Youngkin shaped his messaging to hit McAuliffe where it would hurt. The Republican nominee lambasted the former governor after he said that parents should not have a say in what students learn in schools. At the end of the day, McAuliffe was right. Parents are not experts in education, and they should not have a place in deciding on public education and curricula. But at a time when Virginia’s voters are divided by the boogieman Republicans have created out of Critical Race Theory, McAuliffe’s common sense assertion about public education can be twisted by anyone who opposes him.

In the past few weeks, McAuliffe has campaigned alongside President Obama, current Vice President Kamala Harris, Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams, and Chairman of the Democratic National Committee Jaime Harrison. The fact that McAuliffe has called on these Democratic heavy hitters shows just how hard he is struggling to combat Youngkin’s messaging. Having failed to land enough punches to change the trajectory of the race, McAuliffe had no choice but to call in reinforcements.

While McAuliffe has called in Democratic juggernauts, Youngkin has opted to campaign alone in the final days of the election. The reason why is simple; Youngkin cannot appear next to the last Republican president while maintaining his moderate persona. President Trump has conducted virtual campaign events for Youngkin, but the two have never appeared next to each other in person. If Youngkin stood side by side with the man who inspired the Insurrection January 6, 2021, he would lose the image that he has worked so hard to create.

Because Youngkin has not taken hard stances on issues, we do not know what a Youngkin Administration would look like. 

If Youngkin wins, he will have the ability and the authority to shape Virginia’s path into the future. That includes shaping the way Virginia legalizes marijuana purchases. Though the possession and consumption of marijuana was legalized last summer, there are still many things that need to be ironed out. For example, Virginia is set to begin retail marijuana sales within the next few years. The implementation of a well regulated market is crucial for marijuana policy, and Youngkin has already laid the foundation for a weak market by falsely claiming that other states have not raised significant revenue from their markets.

Youngkin’s ability to connect to moderates and extremists makes him a unique threat not just to the Democratic Party but to the people of Virginia. As governor, Youngkin is in a position to overhaul Virginia’s public school system in order to ban the teaching of subjects he opposes. He would also be the governor to oversee the process of legalizing marijuana retail sales, and given his stance on the issue, he would not do it in a productive way. Further, his stance on reproductive justice would restrict access to abortion. But because he has refused to elaborate on his stance, we do not know to what extent he would fight to restrict abortion.

With only a few days left in the election, did President Obama’s analysis of Youngkin’s campaign come too late, or will Democrats be able to leverage another win in Virginia?